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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199603-199605

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
7
5
2
14
1
0
3
4
10
5
5
20

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
30
11
9
50
1
0
3
4
33
11
12
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
10
0
0
10
35
25
10
70
5
0
15
20
50
25
25
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
0
0
4
54
20
16
89
2
0
5
7
59
20
21
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.286
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.20 2.80 0.80
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.06 4.55 0.33
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: -0.071
true Heidke skill score: 0.310 true Heidke skill score: 0.094
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: -0.071
true Kuipers skill score: 0.360 true Kuipers skill score: 0.130
threat score:
0.200 0.357 0.500
threat score:
0.061 0.220 0.231
equitable threat score:
0.111 0.143 0.400
equitable threat score:
0.026 0.029 0.176
probability of detection:
0.200 1.000 0.600
probability of detection:
0.061 1.000 0.250
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.643 0.250
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.780 0.250
samples: 20 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 35.71 %coverage: 100.00