CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199604-199606

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
6
4
13
1
3
2
6
0
1
0
1
4
10
6
20

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
6
4
13
14
13
15
42
0
1
0
1
17
20
19
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
15
30
20
65
5
15
10
30
0
5
0
5
20
50
30
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
11
7
23
25
23
27
75
0
2
0
2
30
36
34
100

hitrate: 0.300 hitrate: 0.286
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.25 0.60 0.17
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.76 2.10 0.05
Heidke skill score: -0.050 Heidke skill score: -0.071
true Heidke skill score: 0.007 true Heidke skill score: -0.089
Kuipers skill score: -0.050 Kuipers skill score: -0.071
true Kuipers skill score: 0.008 true Kuipers skill score: -0.088
threat score:
0.214 0.231 0.000
threat score:
0.111 0.265 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.035 0.000 -0.045
equitable threat score:
-0.041 -0.059 -0.017
probability of detection:
0.750 0.300 0.000
probability of detection:
0.176 0.650 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.769 0.500 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.769 0.690 1.000
samples: 20 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 35.71 %coverage: 100.00