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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199604-199606

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
7
2
12
1
3
3
7
0
0
1
1
4
10
6
20

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
7
2
12
14
13
16
43
0
0
1
1
17
20
19
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
15
35
10
60
5
15
15
35
0
0
5
5
20
50
30
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
13
4
21
25
23
29
77
0
0
2
2
30
36
34
100

hitrate: 0.350 hitrate: 0.304
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.00 0.70 0.17
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.71 2.15 0.05
Heidke skill score: 0.025 Heidke skill score: -0.045
true Heidke skill score: 0.058 true Heidke skill score: -0.064
Kuipers skill score: 0.025 Kuipers skill score: -0.045
true Kuipers skill score: 0.065 true Kuipers skill score: -0.063
threat score:
0.231 0.214 0.167
threat score:
0.115 0.260 0.053
equitable threat score:
0.057 -0.048 0.123
equitable threat score:
-0.029 -0.068 0.035
probability of detection:
0.750 0.300 0.167
probability of detection:
0.176 0.650 0.053
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.750 0.571 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.750 0.698 0.000
samples: 20 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 35.71 %coverage: 100.00