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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199604-199606

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
6
3
14
1
0
0
1
0
2
2
4
6
8
5
19

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
6
3
14
12
12
14
38
0
2
2
4
17
20
19
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
26
32
16
74
5
0
0
5
0
11
11
21
32
42
26
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
9
11
5
25
21
21
25
68
0
4
4
7
30
36
34
100

hitrate: 0.368 hitrate: 0.339
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.33 0.12 0.80
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.82 1.90 0.21
Heidke skill score: 0.053 Heidke skill score: 0.009
true Heidke skill score: 0.084 true Heidke skill score: -0.005
Kuipers skill score: 0.053 Kuipers skill score: 0.009
true Kuipers skill score: 0.089 true Kuipers skill score: -0.005
threat score:
0.333 0.000 0.286
threat score:
0.192 0.261 0.095
equitable threat score:
0.055 -0.049 0.159
equitable threat score:
0.034 -0.048 0.033
probability of detection:
0.833 0.000 0.400
probability of detection:
0.294 0.600 0.105
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.643 1.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.643 0.684 0.500
samples: 19 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 33.93 %coverage: 100.00