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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199605-199607

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
5
5
13
0
3
3
6
1
0
0
1
4
8
8
20

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
5
5
13
11
14
17
42
1
0
0
1
15
19
22
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
15
25
25
65
0
15
15
30
5
0
0
5
20
40
40
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
9
9
23
20
25
30
75
2
0
0
2
27
34
39
100

hitrate: 0.300 hitrate: 0.304
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.25 0.75 0.12
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.87 2.21 0.05
Heidke skill score: -0.050 Heidke skill score: -0.045
true Heidke skill score: 0.041 true Heidke skill score: -0.030
Kuipers skill score: -0.050 Kuipers skill score: -0.045
true Kuipers skill score: 0.047 true Kuipers skill score: -0.030
threat score:
0.214 0.273 0.000
threat score:
0.120 0.298 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.035 0.070 -0.047
equitable threat score:
-0.022 -0.008 -0.017
probability of detection:
0.750 0.375 0.000
probability of detection:
0.200 0.737 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.769 0.500 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.769 0.667 1.000
samples: 20 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 35.71 %coverage: 100.00