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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199605-199607

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
7
4
15
0
0
1
1
1
0
2
3
5
7
7
19

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
7
4
15
10
12
16
38
1
0
2
3
15
19
22
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
21
37
21
79
0
0
5
5
5
0
11
16
26
37
37
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
13
7
27
18
21
29
68
2
0
4
5
27
34
39
100

hitrate: 0.316 hitrate: 0.321
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.00 0.14 0.43
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 2.00 0.14
Heidke skill score: -0.026 Heidke skill score: -0.018
true Heidke skill score: 0.043 true Heidke skill score: -0.002
Kuipers skill score: -0.026 Kuipers skill score: -0.018
true Kuipers skill score: 0.046 true Kuipers skill score: -0.002
threat score:
0.250 0.000 0.250
threat score:
0.154 0.267 0.087
equitable threat score:
0.004 -0.048 0.130
equitable threat score:
-0.001 -0.028 0.038
probability of detection:
0.800 0.000 0.286
probability of detection:
0.267 0.632 0.091
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.733 1.000 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.733 0.684 0.333
samples: 19 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 33.93 %coverage: 100.00