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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199605-199607

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
5
1
9
0
1
3
4
0
0
2
2
3
6
6
15

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
5
1
9
12
14
19
45
0
0
2
2
15
19
22
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
20
33
7
60
0
7
20
27
0
0
13
13
20
40
40
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
9
2
16
21
25
34
80
0
0
4
4
27
34
39
100

hitrate: 0.400 hitrate: 0.339
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.00 0.67 0.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.60 2.37 0.09
Heidke skill score: 0.100 Heidke skill score: 0.009
true Heidke skill score: 0.167 true Heidke skill score: 0.014
Kuipers skill score: 0.100 Kuipers skill score: 0.009
true Kuipers skill score: 0.187 true Kuipers skill score: 0.015
threat score:
0.333 0.111 0.333
threat score:
0.143 0.280 0.091
equitable threat score:
0.167 -0.081 0.231
equitable threat score:
0.032 -0.037 0.057
probability of detection:
1.000 0.167 0.333
probability of detection:
0.200 0.737 0.091
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.750 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.689 0.000
samples: 15 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 26.79 %coverage: 100.00