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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199605-199607

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
6
4
14
0
1
0
1
1
0
3
4
5
7
7
19

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
6
4
14
10
13
15
38
1
0
3
4
15
19
22
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
21
32
21
74
0
5
0
5
5
0
16
21
26
37
37
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
11
7
25
18
23
27
68
2
0
5
7
27
34
39
100

hitrate: 0.421 hitrate: 0.357
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.80 0.14 0.57
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.93 2.00 0.18
Heidke skill score: 0.132 Heidke skill score: 0.036
true Heidke skill score: 0.184 true Heidke skill score: 0.047
Kuipers skill score: 0.132 Kuipers skill score: 0.036
true Kuipers skill score: 0.197 true Kuipers skill score: 0.048
threat score:
0.267 0.143 0.375
threat score:
0.160 0.295 0.130
equitable threat score:
0.028 0.095 0.234
equitable threat score:
0.012 0.003 0.067
probability of detection:
0.800 0.143 0.429
probability of detection:
0.267 0.684 0.136
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.714 0.000 0.250
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.714 0.658 0.250
samples: 19 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 33.93 %coverage: 100.00