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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199606-199608

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
5
3
10
2
1
0
3
0
2
1
3
4
8
4
16

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
5
3
10
12
12
19
43
0
2
1
3
14
19
23
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
31
19
63
13
6
0
19
0
13
6
19
25
50
25
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
9
5
18
21
21
34
77
0
4
2
5
25
34
41
100

hitrate: 0.250 hitrate: 0.268
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.50 0.38 0.75
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.71 2.26 0.13
Heidke skill score: -0.125 Heidke skill score: -0.098
true Heidke skill score: -0.067 true Heidke skill score: -0.088
Kuipers skill score: -0.125 Kuipers skill score: -0.098
true Kuipers skill score: -0.075 true Kuipers skill score: -0.091
threat score:
0.167 0.100 0.167
threat score:
0.091 0.240 0.040
equitable threat score:
-0.053 -0.059 0.048
equitable threat score:
-0.026 -0.073 -0.010
probability of detection:
0.500 0.125 0.250
probability of detection:
0.143 0.632 0.043
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.800 0.667 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.800 0.721 0.667
samples: 16 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 28.57 %coverage: 100.00