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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199606-199608

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
3
4
9
1
1
2
4
0
1
1
2
3
5
7
15

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
3
4
9
12
15
18
45
0
1
1
2
14
19
23
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
20
27
60
7
7
13
27
0
7
7
13
20
33
47
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
5
7
16
21
27
32
80
0
2
2
4
25
34
41
100

hitrate: 0.267 hitrate: 0.321
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.00 0.80 0.29
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.64 2.37 0.09
Heidke skill score: -0.100 Heidke skill score: -0.018
true Heidke skill score: -0.006 true Heidke skill score: -0.009
Kuipers skill score: -0.100 Kuipers skill score: -0.018
true Kuipers skill score: -0.007 true Kuipers skill score: -0.009
threat score:
0.200 0.125 0.125
threat score:
0.095 0.306 0.042
equitable threat score:
0.024 -0.050 0.009
equitable threat score:
-0.013 -0.008 0.008
probability of detection:
0.667 0.200 0.143
probability of detection:
0.143 0.789 0.043
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.778 0.750 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.778 0.667 0.500
samples: 15 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 26.79 %coverage: 100.00