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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199606-199608

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
7
2
12
1
1
0
2
0
0
2
2
4
8
4
16

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
7
2
12
11
12
19
42
0
0
2
2
14
19
23
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
19
44
13
75
6
6
0
13
0
0
13
13
25
50
25
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
13
4
21
20
21
34
75
0
0
4
4
25
34
41
100

hitrate: 0.375 hitrate: 0.304
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.00 0.25 0.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.86 2.21 0.09
Heidke skill score: 0.062 Heidke skill score: -0.045
true Heidke skill score: 0.130 true Heidke skill score: -0.028
Kuipers skill score: 0.062 Kuipers skill score: -0.045
true Kuipers skill score: 0.150 true Kuipers skill score: -0.029
threat score:
0.231 0.111 0.500
threat score:
0.130 0.245 0.087
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.429
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.065 0.053
probability of detection:
0.750 0.125 0.500
probability of detection:
0.214 0.632 0.087
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.750 0.500 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.750 0.714 0.000
samples: 16 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 28.57 %coverage: 100.00