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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199607-199609

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
3
3
13
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
2
8
4
3
15

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
3
3
13
12
16
13
41
1
1
0
2
20
20
16
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
47
20
20
87
0
0
0
0
7
7
0
13
53
27
20
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
5
5
23
21
29
23
73
2
2
0
4
36
36
29
100

hitrate: 0.467 hitrate: 0.411
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.62 0.00 0.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.65 2.05 0.12
Heidke skill score: 0.200 Heidke skill score: 0.116
true Heidke skill score: -0.043 true Heidke skill score: 0.087
Kuipers skill score: 0.200 Kuipers skill score: 0.116
true Kuipers skill score: -0.037 true Kuipers skill score: 0.085
threat score:
0.500 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.269 0.356 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.009 0.000 -0.087
equitable threat score:
0.110 0.045 -0.033
probability of detection:
0.875 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.350 0.800 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.462 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.462 0.610 1.000
samples: 15 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 26.79 %coverage: 100.00