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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199607-199609

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
2
4
9
1
1
2
4
1
0
1
2
5
3
7
15

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
2
4
9
16
18
11
45
1
0
1
2
20
20
16
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
20
13
27
60
7
7
13
27
7
0
7
13
33
20
47
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
4
7
16
29
32
20
80
2
0
2
4
36
36
29
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.393
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.80 1.33 0.29
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.45 2.25 0.12
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: 0.089
true Heidke skill score: 0.026 true Heidke skill score: 0.059
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: 0.089
true Kuipers skill score: 0.028 true Kuipers skill score: 0.058
threat score:
0.273 0.167 0.125
threat score:
0.115 0.383 0.059
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.038 0.009
equitable threat score:
-0.009 0.062 0.026
probability of detection:
0.600 0.333 0.143
probability of detection:
0.150 0.900 0.062
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.750 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.600 0.500
samples: 15 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 26.79 %coverage: 100.00