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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199607-199609

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
5
1
12
1
1
0
2
0
0
2
2
7
6
3
16

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
5
1
12
14
15
13
42
0
0
2
2
20
20
16
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
38
31
6
75
6
6
0
13
0
0
13
13
44
38
19
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
9
2
21
25
27
23
75
0
0
4
4
36
36
29
100

hitrate: 0.562 hitrate: 0.411
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.71 0.33 0.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.60 2.10 0.12
Heidke skill score: 0.344 Heidke skill score: 0.116
true Heidke skill score: 0.273 true Heidke skill score: 0.087
Kuipers skill score: 0.344 Kuipers skill score: 0.116
true Kuipers skill score: 0.259 true Kuipers skill score: 0.085
threat score:
0.462 0.143 0.667
threat score:
0.231 0.319 0.125
equitable threat score:
0.097 0.040 0.619
equitable threat score:
0.079 0.000 0.093
probability of detection:
0.857 0.167 0.667
probability of detection:
0.300 0.750 0.125
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.500 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.643 0.000
samples: 16 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 28.57 %coverage: 100.00