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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199608-199610

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
2
6
0
1
1
2
2
3
2
7
4
6
5
15

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
2
6
14
18
11
43
2
3
2
7
18
23
15
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
13
13
40
0
7
7
13
13
20
13
47
27
40
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
4
4
11
25
32
20
77
4
5
4
13
32
41
27
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.393
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.50 0.33 1.40
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.33 1.87 0.47
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: 0.089
true Heidke skill score: 0.026 true Heidke skill score: 0.016
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: 0.089
true Kuipers skill score: 0.027 true Kuipers skill score: 0.015
threat score:
0.250 0.143 0.200
threat score:
0.091 0.375 0.100
equitable threat score:
0.062 0.032 -0.043
equitable threat score:
0.004 0.011 0.007
probability of detection:
0.500 0.167 0.400
probability of detection:
0.111 0.783 0.133
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.500 0.714
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.581 0.714
samples: 15 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 26.79 %coverage: 100.00