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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199608-199610

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
5
3
12
0
0
1
1
0
1
1
2
4
6
5
15

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
5
3
12
14
17
11
42
0
1
1
2
18
23
15
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
27
33
20
80
0
0
7
7
0
7
7
13
27
40
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
9
5
21
25
30
20
75
0
2
2
4
32
41
27
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.393
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.00 0.17 0.40
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.67 1.83 0.13
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: 0.089
true Heidke skill score: 0.068 true Heidke skill score: 0.010
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: 0.089
true Kuipers skill score: 0.074 true Kuipers skill score: 0.010
threat score:
0.333 0.000 0.167
threat score:
0.154 0.354 0.062
equitable threat score:
0.091 -0.061 0.062
equitable threat score:
0.006 -0.008 0.030
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.200
probability of detection:
0.222 0.739 0.067
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 1.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.595 0.500
samples: 15 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 26.79 %coverage: 100.00