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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199608-199610

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
6
5
15
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
6
5
15

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
6
5
15
14
17
10
41
0
0
0
0
18
23
15
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
27
40
33
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
27
40
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
11
9
27
25
30
18
73
0
0
0
0
32
41
27
100

hitrate: 0.267 hitrate: 0.375
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.75 0.00 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.83 1.78 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.100 Heidke skill score: 0.062
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.019
Kuipers skill score: -0.100 Kuipers skill score: 0.062
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.018
threat score:
0.267 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.138 0.362 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.034 0.005 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.222 0.739 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.733 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.733 0.585 0.000
samples: 15 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 26.79 %coverage: 100.00