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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199609-199611

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
1
0
5
1
0
0
1
4
2
0
6
9
3
0
12

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
1
0
5
30
11
4
45
4
2
0
6
38
14
4
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
33
8
0
42
8
0
0
8
33
17
0
50
75
25
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
2
0
9
54
20
7
80
7
4
0
11
68
25
7
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.268
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.56 0.33 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.13 3.21 1.50
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: -0.098
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.002
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: -0.098
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.003
threat score:
0.400 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.103 0.229 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.040 -0.067 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.017 -0.007 -0.045
probability of detection:
0.444 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.105 0.786 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.200 1.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.200 0.756 1.000
samples: 12 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 21.43 %coverage: 100.00