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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199609-199611

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
9
1
0
10
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
9
3
0
12

contingency table
fcst
obs
9
1
0
10
29
12
4
45
0
1
0
1
38
14
4
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
75
8
0
83
0
8
0
8
0
8
0
8
75
25
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
16
2
0
18
52
21
7
80
0
2
0
2
68
25
7
100

hitrate: 0.833 hitrate: 0.375
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.11 0.33 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.26 3.21 0.25
Heidke skill score: 0.750 Heidke skill score: 0.062
true Heidke skill score: 0.529 true Heidke skill score: 0.076
Kuipers skill score: 0.750 Kuipers skill score: 0.062
true Kuipers skill score: 0.500 true Kuipers skill score: 0.109
threat score:
0.900 0.333 0.000
threat score:
0.231 0.255 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.600 0.273 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.069 0.021 -0.014
probability of detection:
1.000 0.333 0.000
probability of detection:
0.237 0.857 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.100 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.100 0.733 1.000
samples: 12 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 21.43 %coverage: 100.00