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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199609-199611

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
1
0
6
0
0
0
0
4
2
0
6
9
3
0
12

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
1
0
6
29
11
4
44
4
2
0
6
38
14
4
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
42
8
0
50
0
0
0
0
33
17
0
50
75
25
0
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
9
2
0
11
52
20
7
79
7
4
0
11
68
25
7
100

hitrate: 0.417 hitrate: 0.286
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.67 0.00 --
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.16 3.14 1.50
Heidke skill score: 0.125 Heidke skill score: -0.071
true Heidke skill score: 0.067 true Heidke skill score: 0.012
Kuipers skill score: 0.125 Kuipers skill score: -0.071
true Kuipers skill score: 0.111 true Kuipers skill score: 0.019
threat score:
0.500 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.128 0.234 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.091 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.027 0.000 -0.045
probability of detection:
0.556 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.132 0.786 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.167 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.167 0.750 1.000
samples: 12 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 21.43 %coverage: 100.00