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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199610-199612

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
6
6
14
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
2
8
6
16

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
6
6
14
32
37
21
90
0
1
0
1
34
44
27
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
38
38
88
0
6
0
6
0
6
0
6
13
50
38
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
6
6
13
30
35
20
86
0
1
0
1
32
42
26
100

hitrate: 0.188 hitrate: 0.371
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
7.00 0.12 0.17
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.41 2.05 0.04
Heidke skill score: -0.219 Heidke skill score: 0.057
true Heidke skill score: 0.028 true Heidke skill score: -0.056
Kuipers skill score: -0.219 Kuipers skill score: 0.057
true Kuipers skill score: 0.039 true Kuipers skill score: -0.051
threat score:
0.143 0.125 0.000
threat score:
0.043 0.381 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.020 0.067 -0.057
equitable threat score:
-0.061 -0.012 -0.009
probability of detection:
1.000 0.125 0.000
probability of detection:
0.059 0.841 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.857 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.857 0.589 1.000
samples: 16 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 15.24 %coverage: 100.00