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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199610-199612

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
5
2
9
0
0
0
0
1
2
3
6
3
7
5
15

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
5
2
9
16
12
13
41
1
2
3
6
19
19
18
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
33
13
60
0
0
0
0
7
13
20
40
20
47
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
9
4
16
29
21
23
73
2
4
5
11
34
34
32
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.304
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.00 0.00 1.20
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.47 2.16 0.33
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: -0.045
true Heidke skill score: 0.107 true Heidke skill score: -0.051
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: -0.045
true Kuipers skill score: 0.127 true Kuipers skill score: -0.051
threat score:
0.200 0.000 0.375
threat score:
0.077 0.250 0.143
equitable threat score:
0.024 0.000 0.167
equitable threat score:
-0.046 -0.056 0.056
probability of detection:
0.667 0.000 0.600
probability of detection:
0.105 0.632 0.167
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.778 0.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.778 0.707 0.500
samples: 15 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 26.79 %coverage: 100.00