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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199610-199612

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
6
2
10
0
1
3
4
1
0
0
1
3
7
5
15

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
6
2
10
16
13
16
45
1
0
0
1
19
19
18
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
40
13
67
0
7
20
27
7
0
0
7
20
47
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
11
4
18
29
23
29
80
2
0
0
2
34
34
32
100

hitrate: 0.200 hitrate: 0.268
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.33 0.57 0.20
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.53 2.37 0.06
Heidke skill score: -0.200 Heidke skill score: -0.098
true Heidke skill score: -0.111 true Heidke skill score: -0.108
Kuipers skill score: -0.200 Kuipers skill score: -0.098
true Kuipers skill score: -0.127 true Kuipers skill score: -0.107
threat score:
0.182 0.100 0.000
threat score:
0.074 0.255 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.107 -0.059
equitable threat score:
-0.059 -0.063 -0.017
probability of detection:
0.667 0.143 0.000
probability of detection:
0.105 0.684 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.800 0.750 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.800 0.711 1.000
samples: 15 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 26.79 %coverage: 100.00