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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199611-199701

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
4
1
7
0
5
4
9
0
0
1
1
2
9
6
17

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
4
1
7
13
20
15
48
0
0
1
1
15
24
17
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
12
24
6
41
0
29
24
53
0
0
6
6
12
53
35
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
7
2
13
23
36
27
86
0
0
2
2
27
43
30
100

hitrate: 0.471 hitrate: 0.411
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.50 1.00 0.17
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.47 2.00 0.06
Heidke skill score: 0.206 Heidke skill score: 0.116
true Heidke skill score: 0.186 true Heidke skill score: 0.008
Kuipers skill score: 0.206 Kuipers skill score: 0.116
true Kuipers skill score: 0.208 true Kuipers skill score: 0.007
threat score:
0.286 0.385 0.167
threat score:
0.100 0.385 0.059
equitable threat score:
0.190 0.029 0.115
equitable threat score:
0.007 -0.018 0.042
probability of detection:
1.000 0.556 0.167
probability of detection:
0.133 0.833 0.059
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.714 0.444 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.714 0.583 0.000
samples: 17 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 30.36 %coverage: 100.00