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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199611-199701

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
4
0
6
0
3
1
4
0
2
5
7
2
9
6
17

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
4
0
6
13
18
12
43
0
2
5
7
15
24
17
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
12
24
0
35
0
18
6
24
0
12
29
41
12
53
35
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
7
0
11
23
32
21
77
0
4
9
13
27
43
30
100

hitrate: 0.588 hitrate: 0.446
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.00 0.44 1.17
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.40 1.79 0.41
Heidke skill score: 0.382 Heidke skill score: 0.170
true Heidke skill score: 0.402 true Heidke skill score: 0.084
Kuipers skill score: 0.382 Kuipers skill score: 0.170
true Kuipers skill score: 0.476 true Kuipers skill score: 0.078
threat score:
0.333 0.300 0.625
threat score:
0.105 0.367 0.263
equitable threat score:
0.244 0.112 0.457
equitable threat score:
0.023 -0.014 0.170
probability of detection:
1.000 0.333 0.833
probability of detection:
0.133 0.750 0.294
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.250 0.286
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.581 0.286
samples: 17 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 30.36 %coverage: 100.00