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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199611-199701

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
6
0
6
2
1
0
3
0
2
6
8
2
9
6
17

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
6
0
6
15
16
11
42
0
2
6
8
15
24
17
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
35
0
35
12
6
0
18
0
12
35
47
12
53
35
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
11
0
11
27
29
20
75
0
4
11
14
27
43
30
100

hitrate: 0.412 hitrate: 0.393
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.00 0.33 1.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.40 1.75 0.47
Heidke skill score: 0.118 Heidke skill score: 0.089
true Heidke skill score: 0.158 true Heidke skill score: -0.001
Kuipers skill score: 0.118 Kuipers skill score: 0.089
true Kuipers skill score: 0.190 true Kuipers skill score: -0.001
threat score:
0.000 0.091 0.750
threat score:
0.000 0.320 0.316
equitable threat score:
-0.097 -0.062 0.614
equitable threat score:
-0.083 -0.062 0.216
probability of detection:
0.000 0.111 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.667 0.353
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.667 0.250
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.619 0.250
samples: 17 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 30.36 %coverage: 100.00