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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199612-199702

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
4
7
0
0
1
1
0
1
4
5
2
2
9
13

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
4
7
2
15
27
44
0
1
4
5
4
17
35
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
15
8
31
54
0
0
8
8
0
8
31
38
15
15
69
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
2
7
13
4
27
48
79
0
2
7
9
7
30
63
100

hitrate: 0.462 hitrate: 0.375
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.50 0.50 0.56
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.75 2.59 0.14
Heidke skill score: 0.192 Heidke skill score: 0.062
true Heidke skill score: 0.157 true Heidke skill score: 0.103
Kuipers skill score: 0.192 Kuipers skill score: 0.062
true Kuipers skill score: 0.212 true Kuipers skill score: 0.140
threat score:
0.286 0.000 0.400
threat score:
0.222 0.326 0.111
equitable threat score:
0.156 -0.054 0.082
equitable threat score:
0.176 0.050 0.027
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.444
probability of detection:
0.500 0.882 0.114
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.714 1.000 0.200
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.714 0.659 0.200
samples: 13 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 23.21 %coverage: 100.00