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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199612-199702

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
5
10
17
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
2
6
10
18

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
5
10
17
6
24
57
87
0
1
0
1
8
30
67
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
28
56
94
0
0
0
0
0
6
0
6
11
33
56
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
5
10
16
6
23
54
83
0
1
0
1
8
29
64
100

hitrate: 0.111 hitrate: 0.248
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
8.50 0.00 0.10
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.12 2.90 0.01
Heidke skill score: -0.333 Heidke skill score: -0.129
true Heidke skill score: -0.029 true Heidke skill score: -0.010
Kuipers skill score: -0.333 Kuipers skill score: -0.129
true Kuipers skill score: -0.043 true Kuipers skill score: -0.015
threat score:
0.118 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.087 0.258 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.007 0.000 -0.053
equitable threat score:
0.032 -0.013 -0.009
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.250 0.800 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.882 0.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.882 0.724 1.000
samples: 18 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 17.14 %coverage: 100.00