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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199612-199702

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
4
7
0
0
4
4
0
1
1
2
2
2
9
13

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
4
7
2
15
30
47
0
1
1
2
4
17
35
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
15
8
31
54
0
0
31
31
0
8
8
15
15
15
69
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
2
7
13
4
27
54
84
0
2
2
4
7
30
63
100

hitrate: 0.231 hitrate: 0.321
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.50 2.00 0.22
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.75 2.76 0.06
Heidke skill score: -0.154 Heidke skill score: -0.018
true Heidke skill score: -0.008 true Heidke skill score: 0.050
Kuipers skill score: -0.154 Kuipers skill score: -0.018
true Kuipers skill score: -0.013 true Kuipers skill score: 0.069
threat score:
0.286 0.000 0.100
threat score:
0.222 0.306 0.028
equitable threat score:
0.156 -0.114 -0.045
equitable threat score:
0.176 0.021 -0.007
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.111
probability of detection:
0.500 0.882 0.029
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.714 1.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.714 0.681 0.500
samples: 13 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 23.21 %coverage: 100.00