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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199701-199703

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
6
1
7
0
0
2
2
0
0
7
7
0
6
10
16

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
6
1
7
0
15
27
42
0
0
7
7
0
21
35
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
38
6
44
0
0
13
13
0
0
44
44
0
38
63
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
11
2
13
0
27
48
75
0
0
13
13
0
38
63
100

hitrate: 0.438 hitrate: 0.393
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.33 0.70
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 2.00 0.20
Heidke skill score: 0.156 Heidke skill score: 0.089
true Heidke skill score: 0.172 true Heidke skill score: 0.052
Kuipers skill score: 0.156 Kuipers skill score: 0.089
true Kuipers skill score: 0.250 true Kuipers skill score: 0.071
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.700
threat score:
0.000 0.312 0.200
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.103 0.467
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.023 0.086
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.700
probability of detection:
0.000 0.714 0.200
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.643 0.000
samples: 16 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 28.57 %coverage: 100.00