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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199701-199703

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
3
3
0
0
4
4
0
6
3
9
0
6
10
16

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
3
3
0
15
29
44
0
6
3
9
0
21
35
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
19
19
0
0
25
25
0
38
19
56
0
38
63
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
5
5
0
27
52
79
0
11
5
16
0
38
63
100

hitrate: 0.188 hitrate: 0.321
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.67 0.90
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 2.10 0.26
Heidke skill score: -0.219 Heidke skill score: -0.018
true Heidke skill score: -0.465 true Heidke skill score: -0.122
Kuipers skill score: -0.219 Kuipers skill score: -0.018
true Kuipers skill score: -0.550 true Kuipers skill score: -0.157
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.188
threat score:
0.000 0.300 0.073
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.176 -0.253
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.045 -0.074
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.300
probability of detection:
0.000 0.714 0.086
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.659 0.667
samples: 16 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 28.57 %coverage: 100.00