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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199701-199703

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
8
4
12
0
0
2
2
0
1
4
5
0
9
10
19

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
8
4
12
1
28
59
88
0
1
4
5
1
37
67
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
42
21
63
0
0
11
11
0
5
21
26
0
47
53
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
8
4
11
1
27
56
84
0
1
4
5
1
35
64
100

hitrate: 0.211 hitrate: 0.305
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.22 0.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
12.00 2.38 0.07
Heidke skill score: -0.184 Heidke skill score: -0.043
true Heidke skill score: 0.027 true Heidke skill score: -0.033
Kuipers skill score: -0.184 Kuipers skill score: -0.043
true Kuipers skill score: 0.044 true Kuipers skill score: -0.047
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.364
threat score:
0.000 0.289 0.059
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.094 0.164
equitable threat score:
-0.009 -0.046 0.012
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.400
probability of detection:
0.000 0.757 0.060
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.200
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.682 0.200
samples: 19 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 18.10 %coverage: 100.00