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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199702-199704

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
3
4
0
0
2
2
4
7
6
17
4
8
11
23

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
3
4
4
15
16
35
4
7
6
17
8
23
25
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
4
13
17
0
0
9
9
17
30
26
74
17
35
48
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
5
7
7
27
29
63
7
13
11
30
14
41
45
100

hitrate: 0.261 hitrate: 0.375
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.25 1.55
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 1.52 0.68
Heidke skill score: -0.109 Heidke skill score: 0.062
true Heidke skill score: -0.261 true Heidke skill score: -0.046
Kuipers skill score: -0.109 Kuipers skill score: 0.062
true Kuipers skill score: -0.247 true Kuipers skill score: -0.045
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.273
threat score:
0.000 0.349 0.167
equitable threat score:
-0.095 -0.075 -0.154
equitable threat score:
-0.050 0.022 -0.056
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.545
probability of detection:
0.000 0.652 0.240
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.647
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.571 0.647
samples: 23 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 41.07 %coverage: 100.00