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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199702-199704

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
7
8
17
2
0
0
2
0
1
3
4
4
8
11
23

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
7
8
17
6
15
14
35
0
1
3
4
8
23
25
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
9
30
35
74
9
0
0
9
0
4
13
17
17
35
48
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
13
14
30
11
27
25
63
0
2
5
7
14
41
45
100

hitrate: 0.217 hitrate: 0.357
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
4.25 0.25 0.36
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.12 1.52 0.16
Heidke skill score: -0.174 Heidke skill score: 0.036
true Heidke skill score: -0.032 true Heidke skill score: 0.038
Kuipers skill score: -0.174 Kuipers skill score: 0.036
true Kuipers skill score: -0.040 true Kuipers skill score: 0.041
threat score:
0.105 0.000 0.250
threat score:
0.087 0.349 0.115
equitable threat score:
-0.060 -0.075 0.108
equitable threat score:
-0.021 0.022 0.050
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 0.273
probability of detection:
0.250 0.652 0.120
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.882 1.000 0.250
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.882 0.571 0.250
samples: 23 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 41.07 %coverage: 100.00