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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199702-199704

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
6
3
13
0
1
0
1
0
1
8
9
4
8
11
23

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
6
3
13
4
16
14
34
0
1
8
9
8
23
25
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
17
26
13
57
0
4
0
4
0
4
35
39
17
35
48
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
11
5
23
7
29
25
61
0
2
14
16
14
41
45
100

hitrate: 0.565 hitrate: 0.500
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.25 0.12 0.82
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.62 1.48 0.36
Heidke skill score: 0.348 Heidke skill score: 0.250
true Heidke skill score: 0.378 true Heidke skill score: 0.226
Kuipers skill score: 0.348 Kuipers skill score: 0.250
true Kuipers skill score: 0.427 true Kuipers skill score: 0.238
threat score:
0.308 0.125 0.667
threat score:
0.235 0.390 0.308
equitable threat score:
0.162 0.085 0.480
equitable threat score:
0.142 0.075 0.181
probability of detection:
1.000 0.125 0.727
probability of detection:
0.500 0.696 0.320
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.692 0.000 0.111
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.692 0.529 0.111
samples: 23 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 41.07 %coverage: 100.00