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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199702-199704

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
7
8
15
0
1
2
3
4
0
1
5
4
8
11
23

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
7
8
15
4
16
16
36
4
0
1
5
8
23
25
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
30
35
65
0
4
9
13
17
0
4
22
17
35
48
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
13
14
27
7
29
29
64
7
0
2
9
14
41
45
100

hitrate: 0.087 hitrate: 0.304
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.75 0.38 0.45
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.87 1.57 0.20
Heidke skill score: -0.370 Heidke skill score: -0.045
true Heidke skill score: -0.238 true Heidke skill score: -0.059
Kuipers skill score: -0.370 Kuipers skill score: -0.045
true Kuipers skill score: -0.284 true Kuipers skill score: -0.063
threat score:
0.000 0.100 0.067
threat score:
0.000 0.372 0.034
equitable threat score:
-0.159 -0.005 -0.110
equitable threat score:
-0.103 0.043 -0.046
probability of detection:
0.000 0.125 0.091
probability of detection:
0.000 0.696 0.040
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.667 0.800
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.556 0.800
samples: 23 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 41.07 %coverage: 100.00