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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199703-199705

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
4
11
16
1
3
0
4
0
0
0
0
2
7
11
20

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
4
11
16
29
7
4
40
0
0
0
0
30
11
15
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
20
55
80
5
15
0
20
0
0
0
0
10
35
55
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
7
20
29
52
13
7
71
0
0
0
0
54
20
27
100

hitrate: 0.200 hitrate: 0.143
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
8.00 0.57 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.53 3.64 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.200 Heidke skill score: -0.286
true Heidke skill score: 0.059 true Heidke skill score: -0.213
Kuipers skill score: -0.200 Kuipers skill score: -0.286
true Kuipers skill score: 0.088 true Kuipers skill score: -0.250
threat score:
0.059 0.375 0.000
threat score:
0.022 0.159 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.039 0.242 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.208 -0.024 0.000
probability of detection:
0.500 0.429 0.000
probability of detection:
0.033 0.636 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.938 0.250 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.938 0.825 0.000
samples: 20 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 35.71 %coverage: 100.00