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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199703-199705

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
4
3
9
0
3
2
5
0
0
6
6
2
7
11
20

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
4
3
9
28
7
6
41
0
0
6
6
30
11
15
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
10
20
15
45
0
15
10
25
0
0
30
30
10
35
55
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
7
5
16
50
13
11
73
0
0
11
11
54
20
27
100

hitrate: 0.550 hitrate: 0.268
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
4.50 0.71 0.55
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.30 3.73 0.40
Heidke skill score: 0.325 Heidke skill score: -0.098
true Heidke skill score: 0.359 true Heidke skill score: 0.012
Kuipers skill score: 0.325 Kuipers skill score: -0.098
true Kuipers skill score: 0.447 true Kuipers skill score: 0.015
threat score:
0.222 0.333 0.545
threat score:
0.054 0.156 0.400
equitable threat score:
0.136 0.172 0.351
equitable threat score:
-0.088 -0.029 0.328
probability of detection:
1.000 0.429 0.545
probability of detection:
0.067 0.636 0.400
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.778 0.400 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.778 0.829 0.000
samples: 20 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 35.71 %coverage: 100.00