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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199703-199705

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
3
0
5
0
1
7
8
0
3
4
7
2
7
11
20

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
3
0
5
28
5
11
44
0
3
4
7
30
11
15
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
10
15
0
25
0
5
35
40
0
15
20
35
10
35
55
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
5
0
9
50
9
20
79
0
5
7
13
54
20
27
100

hitrate: 0.350 hitrate: 0.196
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.50 1.14 0.64
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.17 4.00 0.47
Heidke skill score: 0.025 Heidke skill score: -0.205
true Heidke skill score: -0.012 true Heidke skill score: -0.051
Kuipers skill score: 0.025 Kuipers skill score: -0.205
true Kuipers skill score: -0.013 true Kuipers skill score: -0.065
threat score:
0.400 0.071 0.286
threat score:
0.061 0.100 0.222
equitable threat score:
0.333 -0.161 0.015
equitable threat score:
-0.022 -0.088 0.132
probability of detection:
1.000 0.143 0.364
probability of detection:
0.067 0.455 0.267
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.600 0.875 0.429
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.600 0.886 0.429
samples: 20 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 35.71 %coverage: 100.00