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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199704-199706

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
3
0
2
5
5
0
7
12
9
1
9
19

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
33
3
6
42
5
0
7
12
39
4
13
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
5
0
11
16
0
11
26
26
0
37
63
47
5
47
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
0
4
59
5
11
75
9
0
13
21
70
7
23
100

hitrate: 0.421 hitrate: 0.196
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.22 5.00 1.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.05 10.50 0.92
Heidke skill score: 0.132 Heidke skill score: -0.205
true Heidke skill score: 0.091 true Heidke skill score: 0.078
Kuipers skill score: 0.132 Kuipers skill score: -0.205
true Kuipers skill score: 0.106 true Kuipers skill score: 0.150
threat score:
0.100 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.025 0.070 0.389
equitable threat score:
0.006 -0.046 0.158
equitable threat score:
-0.010 0.000 0.277
probability of detection:
0.111 0.000 0.778
probability of detection:
0.026 0.750 0.538
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 1.000 0.417
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.929 0.417
samples: 19 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 33.93 %coverage: 100.00