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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199704-199706

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
9
1
8
18
9
1
9
19

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
30
3
5
38
9
1
8
18
39
4
13
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
5
5
47
5
42
95
47
5
47
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
54
5
9
68
16
2
14
32
70
7
23
100

hitrate: 0.421 hitrate: 0.196
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.00 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 9.50 1.38
Heidke skill score: 0.132 Heidke skill score: -0.205
true Heidke skill score: -0.056 true Heidke skill score: 0.084
Kuipers skill score: 0.132 Kuipers skill score: -0.205
true Kuipers skill score: -0.056 true Kuipers skill score: 0.161
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.421
threat score:
0.000 0.077 0.348
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.027 -0.050
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.008 0.203
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.889
probability of detection:
0.000 0.750 0.615
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.556
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.921 0.556
samples: 19 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 33.93 %coverage: 100.00