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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199704-199706

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
9
1
7
17
0
0
2
2
0
0
0
0
9
1
9
19

contingency table
fcst
obs
9
1
7
17
30
3
6
39
0
0
0
0
39
4
13
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
47
5
37
89
0
0
11
11
0
0
0
0
47
5
47
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
16
2
13
30
54
5
11
70
0
0
0
0
70
7
23
100

hitrate: 0.474 hitrate: 0.214
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.89 2.00 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.44 9.75 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.211 Heidke skill score: -0.179
true Heidke skill score: 0.078 true Heidke skill score: -0.063
Kuipers skill score: 0.211 Kuipers skill score: -0.179
true Kuipers skill score: 0.081 true Kuipers skill score: -0.103
threat score:
0.529 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.191 0.075 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.106 -0.036 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.081 0.006 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.231 0.750 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.471 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.471 0.923 0.000
samples: 19 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 33.93 %coverage: 100.00