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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199705-199707

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
1
2
3
0
2
5
1
6
5
12
5
6
8
19

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
1
2
27
8
7
42
1
6
5
12
29
14
13
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
0
5
11
16
0
11
26
5
32
26
63
26
32
42
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
2
4
48
14
13
75
2
11
9
21
52
25
23
100

hitrate: 0.316 hitrate: 0.250
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.40 0.83 1.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.07 3.00 0.92
Heidke skill score: -0.026 Heidke skill score: -0.125
true Heidke skill score: -0.098 true Heidke skill score: -0.008
Kuipers skill score: -0.026 Kuipers skill score: -0.125
true Kuipers skill score: -0.093 true Kuipers skill score: -0.009
threat score:
0.167 0.000 0.333
threat score:
0.033 0.167 0.250
equitable threat score:
0.087 -0.168 -0.005
equitable threat score:
-0.001 -0.067 0.129
probability of detection:
0.200 0.000 0.625
probability of detection:
0.034 0.571 0.385
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 1.000 0.583
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.810 0.583
samples: 19 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 33.93 %coverage: 100.00