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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199705-199707

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
3
3
1
0
1
2
4
4
2
10
5
4
6
15

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
3
3
25
10
8
43
4
4
2
10
29
14
13
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
20
20
7
0
7
13
27
27
13
67
33
27
40
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
5
5
45
18
14
77
7
7
4
18
52
25
23
100

hitrate: 0.133 hitrate: 0.214
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.60 0.50 1.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.10 3.07 0.77
Heidke skill score: -0.300 Heidke skill score: -0.179
true Heidke skill score: -0.373 true Heidke skill score: -0.063
Kuipers skill score: -0.300 Kuipers skill score: -0.179
true Kuipers skill score: -0.358 true Kuipers skill score: -0.076
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.143
threat score:
0.000 0.213 0.095
equitable threat score:
-0.143 -0.098 -0.200
equitable threat score:
-0.051 -0.021 -0.017
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.333
probability of detection:
0.000 0.714 0.154
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.800
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.767 0.800
samples: 15 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 26.79 %coverage: 100.00