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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199705-199707

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
5
4
6
15
5
4
6
15

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
24
10
7
41
5
4
6
15
29
14
13
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
33
27
40
100
33
27
40
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
43
18
13
73
9
7
11
27
52
25
23
100

hitrate: 0.400 hitrate: 0.286
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 2.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.93 1.15
Heidke skill score: 0.100 Heidke skill score: -0.071
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.054
Kuipers skill score: 0.100 Kuipers skill score: -0.071
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.066
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.400
threat score:
0.000 0.222 0.273
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.007 0.136
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.714 0.462
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.600
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.756 0.600
samples: 15 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 26.79 %coverage: 100.00