CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199706-199708

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
1
2
3
0
2
5
2
7
3
12
6
7
6
19

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
1
2
22
15
5
42
2
7
3
12
25
22
9
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
0
5
11
16
0
11
26
11
37
16
63
32
37
32
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
2
4
39
27
9
75
4
13
5
21
45
39
16
100

hitrate: 0.211 hitrate: 0.339
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.33 0.71 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.08 1.91 1.33
Heidke skill score: -0.184 Heidke skill score: 0.009
true Heidke skill score: -0.178 true Heidke skill score: -0.009
Kuipers skill score: -0.184 Kuipers skill score: 0.009
true Kuipers skill score: -0.179 true Kuipers skill score: -0.009
threat score:
0.143 0.000 0.200
threat score:
0.038 0.306 0.167
equitable threat score:
0.058 -0.181 -0.070
equitable threat score:
0.004 -0.046 0.067
probability of detection:
0.167 0.000 0.500
probability of detection:
0.040 0.682 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 1.000 0.750
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.643 0.750
samples: 19 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 33.93 %coverage: 100.00