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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199706-199708

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
5
1
2
8
4
2
0
6
10
4
2
16

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
20
19
9
48
4
2
0
6
25
22
9
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
6
0
13
31
6
13
50
25
13
0
38
63
25
13
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
0
4
36
34
16
86
7
4
0
11
45
39
16
100

hitrate: 0.125 hitrate: 0.357
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.20 2.00 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.08 2.18 0.67
Heidke skill score: -0.313 Heidke skill score: 0.036
true Heidke skill score: -0.167 true Heidke skill score: -0.020
Kuipers skill score: -0.313 Kuipers skill score: 0.036
true Kuipers skill score: -0.235 true Kuipers skill score: -0.021
threat score:
0.091 0.091 0.000
threat score:
0.038 0.373 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.026 -0.111 -0.103
equitable threat score:
0.004 0.004 -0.069
probability of detection:
0.100 0.250 0.000
probability of detection:
0.040 0.864 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.875 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.604 1.000
samples: 16 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 28.57 %coverage: 100.00