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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199706-199708

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
2
4
1
1
0
2
7
3
0
10
10
4
2
16

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
2
4
16
19
7
42
7
3
0
10
25
22
9
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
0
13
25
6
6
0
13
44
19
0
63
63
25
13
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
0
4
7
29
34
13
75
13
5
0
18
45
39
16
100

hitrate: 0.188 hitrate: 0.375
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.40 0.50 5.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.16 1.91 1.11
Heidke skill score: -0.219 Heidke skill score: 0.062
true Heidke skill score: -0.106 true Heidke skill score: 0.031
Kuipers skill score: -0.219 Kuipers skill score: 0.062
true Kuipers skill score: -0.147 true Kuipers skill score: 0.032
threat score:
0.167 0.200 0.000
threat score:
0.074 0.422 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.053 0.111 -0.116
equitable threat score:
0.008 0.088 -0.092
probability of detection:
0.200 0.250 0.000
probability of detection:
0.080 0.864 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.500 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.548 1.000
samples: 16 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 28.57 %coverage: 100.00