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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199707-199709

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
8
3
12
0
1
2
3
0
2
3
5
1
11
8
20

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
8
3
12
24
42
22
88
0
2
3
5
25
52
28
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
40
15
60
0
5
10
15
0
10
15
25
5
55
40
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
8
3
11
23
40
21
84
0
2
3
5
24
50
27
100

hitrate: 0.250 hitrate: 0.438
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
12.00 0.27 0.62
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.48 1.69 0.18
Heidke skill score: -0.125 Heidke skill score: 0.157
true Heidke skill score: 0.048 true Heidke skill score: -0.031
Kuipers skill score: -0.125 Kuipers skill score: 0.157
true Kuipers skill score: 0.070 true Kuipers skill score: -0.027
threat score:
0.083 0.077 0.300
threat score:
0.028 0.429 0.100
equitable threat score:
0.035 -0.057 0.125
equitable threat score:
-0.056 -0.029 0.058
probability of detection:
1.000 0.091 0.375
probability of detection:
0.040 0.808 0.107
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.917 0.667 0.400
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.917 0.523 0.400
samples: 20 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 19.05 %coverage: 100.00