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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199707-199709

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
0
7
1
8
1
2
3
6
1
11
4
16

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
9
21
18
48
1
2
3
6
10
25
21
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
13
0
13
0
44
6
50
6
13
19
38
6
69
25
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
4
0
4
16
38
32
86
2
4
5
11
18
45
38
100

hitrate: 0.625 hitrate: 0.429
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 0.73 1.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.20 1.92 0.29
Heidke skill score: 0.438 Heidke skill score: 0.143
true Heidke skill score: 0.324 true Heidke skill score: -0.001
Kuipers skill score: 0.438 Kuipers skill score: 0.143
true Kuipers skill score: 0.390 true Kuipers skill score: -0.001
threat score:
0.000 0.583 0.429
threat score:
0.000 0.404 0.125
equitable threat score:
-0.043 0.231 0.273
equitable threat score:
-0.031 -0.014 0.034
probability of detection:
0.000 0.636 0.750
probability of detection:
0.000 0.840 0.143
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.125 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.562 0.500
samples: 16 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 28.57 %coverage: 100.00